Good morning guys.
After a considerable period of consolidation, as the Dr had suggested earlier, I do believe we were nearing a break out event, to be confirmed this week. A couple charts that I have been following over the last few weeks are shown below. As with technical analysis, it is very subjective, so what one person may see another doesn't. As Tattswah was kind enough to share, a 'symmetrical continuation triangle' pattern was observed, however, if you look closely there is also a loose 'inverse head and shoulders' pattern which is what I was following.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inverseheadandshoulders.asp
"A chart pattern used in technical analysis to predict the reversal of a current downtrend. This pattern is identified when the price action of a security meets the following characteristics:
1. The price falls to a trough and then rises.
2. The price falls below the former trough and then rises again.
3. Finally, the price falls again, but not as far as the second trough.
Once the final trough is made, the price heads upward toward the resistance found near the top of the previous troughs. Investors typically enter into a long position when the price rises above the resistance of the neckline. The first and third trough are considered shoulders, and the second peak forms the head."
In anticipating the breakout sometime this week, possibly in unison with the potential of the resource upgrade being made, I took a fairly large bite on Friday. The reason why I took action when I did is that the right shoulder, marked (3) is significantly shallow suggesting lack of conviction by sellers and adds to the bullish tone of the pattern.
As to how this plays out, i ham hoping for the following
Another interesting chart is the 'Point and Figure' chart. For those unaware of these charts.
"Conventional technical-analysis charts tend to be the open-close/high-low chart. In the creation of P&F, the emphasis is only on the closing price of an issue. The developers of P&F charting were interested in trend development and thus were concerned not with the noise created daily by minor moves up or down, but with the larger picture and how that plays out in the areas of supply and demand.
The key to P&F charts is the establishment of the unit of price, which is the unit measurement of a price movement that is plotted on the graph. On P&F charts, there is no time axis, only a price axis. Rising stock prices are shown with X's and falling prices are shown with O's. These points appear on the chart only if the price moved at least one unit of price in either direction."
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/03/081303.asp
My chart follows
With much of the daily noise cut out, you can see a recent pattern of higher lows and lower highs, a pennant formation. It was clear in my mind that a breakout was coming as the SP was being squeezed, approaching the end of the pattern formation. A similar pattern was observed prior to the large major upthrust in mid to late last year. Again I am hoping for the breakout to occur this week on significant volume.
Tomorrows open should be interesting. Can I get your thoughts and some of your charts on PLS
@madmacs. Thanks
(20min delay)