PLS 5.83% $3.07 pilbara minerals limited

Happy holidays everyone - hope you all are excited for 2023 as I...

  1. 80 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 1807
    Happy holidays everyone - hope you all are excited for 2023 as I am - here's why:

    Charts:
    • Post Covid bottom in (Mar20), we had a nice little ~200% run, followed by a ~30% retrace, over a 2 month period, at the same place on the Stoch RSI
    • From the previous ~$2 bottom (Jul22), we had a nice little ~200% run, followed but ~30% retrace, over a 2 month period, at the same place on the Stoch RSI
    • Dejavu?
    • Post the ~30% retrace in 2020 there was a bull run of approx +1200% (~$0.30 to ~$3.90), over a 490day period.
    • Post the ~30% retrace in 2022 there was a bull run of approx +___% (~$3.90 to $___), over a 490day period.
    • Are we in for Devaju x2?
    • By the way, we tested the previous $3.90 high and bounced, that's a picture perfect "RS flip" right?
    • Its totally unreasonable to think we'll get another +1,200% run, but we can easily get +100% run at very least. You're kidding yourself if you think that's not likely.
    • My target is $8.50 from the fib - which lines up nicely with current valuations based off conservative $4,500 USD/t of SC6% equivalent pricing and 580-680tpa volumes (note the recent BMX at ~$8,300usd/t SC6 equivalent).

    General
    • Like I noted above, the $8.50 price target is where my bootleg valuations come in at with (i) MC/EBITDA ratio of 6:1, (ii) SC6% equivalent at $4,500usd/t, (iii) volumes falling between 580tpa and 680tpa, (iv) POSCO JV priced in as it will be operational in CY23 - someone fact check me on that plz.
    • We're getting dividends which should be between 20c-30c per share based on operating cashflow at FY23 end being around the $3B range (pending any major capital investments like potential M&A's)
    • Pricing looks like its stabilizing (which isnt a bad thing) at the $8,000usd/t on the higher side, so higher volume contract pricing moving forward should be very nicely above +$5,000usd/t.
    • CALIX demonstration plant will likely have a long line of customers for its outputs - this is such a dark horse venture for PLS! Cant wait to see where this goes!
    • All the other projects/upgrades are moving to schedule!

    Happy Holidays Everyone, take care of yourselves and DYOR.

    Cheers - Woly

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4920/4920736-0125a39a503bf8ec34861048bbed6c06.jpg
 
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