PLS

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$3.05 pilbara minerals limited

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dfs1

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19/12/22

12:52

Post #: 65366637
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Originally posted by nathanwoly: ↑

Happy holidays everyone - hope you all are excited for 2023 as I am - here's why:

Charts:
Post Covid bottom in (Mar20), we had a nice little ~200% run, followed by a ~30% retrace, over a 2 month period, at the same place on the Stoch RSI
From the previous ~$2 bottom (Jul22), we had a nice little ~200% run, followed but ~30% retrace, over a 2 month period, at the same place on the Stoch RSI
Dejavu?
Post the ~30% retrace in 2020 there was a bull run of approx +1200% (~$0.30 to ~$3.90), over a 490day period.
Post the ~30% retrace in 2022 there was a bull run of approx +___% (~$3.90 to $___), over a 490day period.
Are we in for Devaju x2?
By the way, we tested the previous $3.90 high and bounced, that's a picture perfect "RS flip" right?
Its totally unreasonable to think we'll get another +1,200% run, but we can easily get +100% run at very least. You're kidding yourself if you think that's not likely.
My target is $8.50 from the fib - which lines up nicely with current valuations based off conservative $4,500 USD/t of SC6% equivalent pricing and 580-680tpa volumes (note the recent BMX at ~$8,300usd/t SC6 equivalent).

General
Like I noted above, the $8.50 price target is where my bootleg valuations come in at with (i) MC/EBITDA ratio of 6:1, (ii) SC6% equivalent at $4,500usd/t, (iii) volumes falling between 580tpa and 680tpa, (iv) POSCO JV priced in as it will be operational in CY23 - someone fact check me on that plz.
We're getting dividends which should be between 20c-30c per share based on operating cashflow at FY23 end being around the $3B range (pending any major capital investments like potential M&A's)
Pricing looks like its stabilizing (which isnt a bad thing) at the $8,000usd/t on the higher side, so higher volume contract pricing moving forward should be very nicely above +$5,000usd/t.
CALIX demonstration plant will likely have a long line of customers for its outputs - this is such a dark horse venture for PLS! Cant wait to see where this goes!
All the other projects/upgrades are moving to schedule!

Happy Holidays Everyone, take care of yourselves and DYOR.

Cheers - Woly

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Cheers Nathan. Thanks for your outstanding contributions and Happy Holidays to you and yours.
PLS Price at posting: $4.06 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $3.05		Change -0.100(3.17%)		Mkt cap ! $9.185B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$3.13	$3.15	$3.02	$74.55M	24.33M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	89482	$3.04

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$3.05	37502	3

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
6	31294	3.030
12	119629	3.020
6	50011	3.010
54	211167	3.000
11	153088	2.990

Price($)	Vol.	No.
3.050	11000	1
3.060	10330	1
3.070	36169	4
3.080	41571	4
3.090	30000	2

Last trade - 16.10pm 04/10/2024 (20 minute delay)

PLS (ASX) Chart

PLS chart, page-11150

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