Loving the setup before the H1 results tomorrow- leading into the rest of the year. Few thoughts below:
Charts (as its a charts thread):
- All thoughts annotated in the picture below, and in the following...
- Fluctuating around oversold or middle territory on Daily, Weekly, and Monthly timeframes.
- Back into oversold on the Stochastic RSI on the monthly - teasing me to put the house on PLS before right before dividends
- Gap at $4.50 filled as called a few weeks ago
- Gap around the low $4's also looks filled to me (but someone correct me if im wrong) - hopefully we can all move on.
- Daily suggestive of a few good days/weeks ahead, monthly suggestive of a few good years ahead lol (maybe a decade or too according to some notes below)
- Lithium futures chart sitting at -2 Standard deviations below the mean on weekly timeframes. I would guess spot pricing doesn't get any lower than where we are not over the coming months. Likely to be closer to the $100/kg than $75/kg by EOFY23. Look out for some blinding SC6% equivalent pricing coming out later this year.
Fundamental Stuff:
- H1 announcement likely to be a catalyst for some positive price action (i.e., Dividends, Drilling updates hopefully, other business, more M&A theatre)
- Chinese new year being over, there's evidence to suggest that spot pricing improves, and PLS new pricing mechanism could turn some heads as its now linked to Hydroxide.
- Debt facility execution just means more money to play with and future is slightly more de-risked.
- Nice excerpt from Battery Materials Review (2022) published a few days ag that says stuff better than i eve could:
- "We expect prices to be US$60/kg on average for lithium carbonate and hydroxide over the next three years. Some commentators are calling for lithium chemical prices to exceed US$100/kg." - which you might note they do not deny their belief that $100kg is a possibility.
- "spodumene concentrate and lithium chemical prices will remain stronger for longer over the next five to ten years"
- Source= https://www.batterymaterialsreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/BMR-YB2022F.pdf
- The Rock Stock guys said something that had me thinking "specialty chemicals converters trade at a higher EBITDA multiple compared to traditional miners"... and this might be why the AKE's and MINs trade at a higher EBITDA multiple than PLS (for now). Once POSCO JV online, and CALIX progress is made, PLS will be in its own league I believe.
- p.s. i do my own forward EBITDA calculations for PLS and others like in the spreadsheet screenshot below... but Yahoo finance does a forward looking PE ratio... which tells the same story when comparing and seeing who is undervalued.
- Assuming pricing remains stable-ish around where we are now (let alone higher) as the experts I trust are saying. We can be locking in $3-4B EBITDA pa over the next few years at current cpacity.... Let alone when PLS will be producing 1Mtpa SC5.5-6%.
Things are looking good gang! Cant wait for the H1 results tomorrow.
Take care of yourselves - Woly
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