Darn. Your comments made me stop and think and have another look at the charts zoomed out so I can see a longer period and I realised that my daily chart and intra-day charts are not saying the same thing. I should have realised this before because I read the ranges off the daily every day - I just didn't look at the bigger picture for a couple of weeks.
As you can see on the daily I still have it set up for the original pattern where wave 1 finished at circa 525 and wave 2 started immediately with a target of 395 (the spot marked ii on the chart). The timing was clearly off but the target is the -78% fib of wave 1, and our original expectation. Then because of the pattern in wave 1 and the behaviour around the -38% fib line we rethought it and felt the turn at 525 might just have bee the start of the 4th subwave of wave 1, meaning there was a subwave 5 to go, but for that to be the case it needed to turn around 475. So my intraday charts were set up for that, making 426 the -78% fib of subwave 3 of wave 1, BUT if this was subwave 4, it cant go below the -50% fib and thus the -78% fib on subwave 3 is not a thing - which is why it didn't stop at 426 on the decent.
This is a straight screw up on my part. I should have dropped the subwave 4 assumption in the intraday when it fell from 475. The intraday chart only goes back to the 14/2 and I needed to go back to the 30 Jan. So it has the error built into it.
I now think your expectation is most likely correct as this is part of the wave 2 ABC correction which started on 27 Jan, thus we have a target of 395 for this wave, not 426 as I erroneously thought because I'm an idiot who didn't update his chart days ago, and we will likely see this come back further. Probably not today due to the last day for divie buying, but likely tomorrow when it goes ex div. We know it will come back down tomorrow anyway by at least the amount of the dividend, but instead of bouncing the day after it will likely go further with a target circa 395. At least, that is what I am now expecting.
(20min delay)