Hmm, interesting theory. Trend change usually occurs from...

Hmm, interesting theory.
Trend change usually occurs from tightening range near the bottom of downtrend.
Statistically, on most downtrend breakouts: there is 50-90% chance catching falling knife is gonna be higher than downtrend breakout/reversal buy signal.
And 50% chance that catching falling knife is only half way to the the bottom.
Then again, false breakouts/dead cat bounces even out the odds a bit.
I guess it largely depends on where one pulls the trigger on falling knife and whether one gets trend change right or not.