Hi Folks
Lots of discussion about the latest surge in SP.
Don't get me wrong I am a strong holder of PLS shares. First buy-in at 1.20, then 2.02 then 2.89 , Sold a small portion at 4.62 and am looking to buy in again to get towards free carrying the shares. I have managed this with other of my shareholdings.
Sometimes when I try this the SP doesn't quite get to my buy-back target before turning upwards. That is not a serous problem because I retain the large portion of my holding. I didn't buy-back PLS as the SP dropped towards the recent low of 3.35 as my target was lower. Could be an opportunity lost. It's happened before and it will happen again. However with a number of my shares it did reach the buy-back target and that's how I get to free-carry. On some of these occasions the SP dropped even lower than my target before recovering. That's OK, because that's life in the markets.
I am rambling on a bit, but it's a description of how I deal with the markets. Next, to my point
Mark Twain apparently once said.
"History doesn't always repeat, it just rhymes allot"
I am going to paste two PLS charts.
The first period I am interested in covers the period Jan - Jun 2022. Notice the (a), (b), (c) , (d), (e) and (f) pattern covered over this period.
I want to draw your attention to the FIB drawn from (c) 3.76 down to (d) 2.37. Then notice that the bounce retracement upward to (e) 3.08 reached the FIB retracement level of Ret50%. Then the subsequent fall to (f) 1.975 which was just over an EXT23.6% extention downwards from (d).
See my second chart.
The second charts covers recent history. Here I have mapped in part of the same pattern that has so far completed (a), (b), (c) and (d).
I have again include the downward FIB from (c) 5.26 to (d) 3.35. The bounce retrace upward has begun so far reaching 4.14. If it was to duplicate the retracement in my first chart exactly then (e) would form around 4.30. These patterns in my experience don't duplicate exactly, but anywhere in the region of let's say 4.20-4.40 , to form (e) , would rhyme allot. If 4.14 is as high as it gets it still rhymes.
But the whole pattern is not complete. If there is in fact a fall from (e) but only falls part way between (e) and (d) and then turns upwards above (e) then the whole (a) to (f) pattern fails and history does not repeat itself in this case.
There is also another case where the fall forms around the 3.35 region to form a double bottom. (it happens)
The sign that the pattern is in fact rhyming allot is if the fall goes to below (d). Then its a question of how far below (d) will (f) get to.
As you can see this is how I deal with the markets so that I am not surprised by what plays out, as always DYOR.
We shall see?
cheers Lies
(20min delay)