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Johnny87

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24/04/23

19:23

Post #: 67435856
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Originally posted by nathanwoly: ↑

@RDL, always here lurking mate! My 2 cents below. TLDR: This is a slam-dunk $10 stock.

Charts
Looks like we've broken trend on the weekly RSI - this is great news!
Linear regression channel on the weekly also looks promising, we usually dip outside the +/-2 StdDev range then regress back to the mean... We've hit -2stddev now off to the races toward +2Stddev.
This should land us around $6.30 - $7.10 fib levels (which is equivalent to a measly enterprise value of ~$15B by EOFY23 - should be way more)
Stochastic RSI has some run also, and i doubt we'll get faked out by macro Chinese spot carbonate price free-falls.
Timeframes from highs to next highs have taken anywhere between 150 to 300 days... this isn't very technical but times almost up
The monthly timeframe also looks so good. Being bottom of the stochastic on such a big timeframe makes me so relaxed about the next 1-2 years!

Fundamentals
This Q3 I believe we'll be making a conservative $4,000 USD per SC5.4% after operating costs, royalties, and taxes. So 150kt shipped should = $900M AUD profit.
That means about $4B in the bank by EOFY and a 20% dividend (-$330M interim) of 16c or 30% dividend (-$330M interim) of 29c.
If the BODs go the latter that's an EPS of over 10% and will send PLS into the stratosphere for all the self managed retirees that aren't exposed yet.
$4B in the bank means transformational M&A opportunities and the new CDO will be keen to make a mark before years end if they have the chance.
If Calix pulls off a marketable product of a 30-35% Li concentrated sulphates (remembering LiOC is < 20% Li), not only does that JV make a ton of money off all of PLS uncontracted tonnes, But also every other uncontracted tonne by all producers for years/decades to come.
POSCO JV coming online by EOCY puts us in the "converter" category - so we should be priced like MIN and AKE at 5:1 or 8:1 EBITDA to Market cap ratio instead of the measly 3:1 we are now.
P1000 FID de-risks us from losing net cash if prices go to the $3,000/t range in the coming years... That still keeps PLS at $4b+ profit per annum with the extra tonnes and all of the above converter margins. So either we get a 10% EPS for a long time, or we get a higher SP... I'm happy with either, but again i suspect the latter to occur.
I always forget stuff, someone add the rest plz, Dale and team just keep hitting nothing but net and im sticking around for the dynasty in the Pilbara.

And dont forget the obligatory IMO and DYOR

Cheers - Woly

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For all the dribble we have to put up with in the chart thread at times, this is exactly what the thread should be for.
Very well written and backed up with actual data.
Everyone should be able to look at these figures (both fundamental and technical), and feel confident in their investment.
Thanks for posting.
PLS Price at posting: $4.23 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
40 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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