PLS chart, page-16844

Hi Folks

I'm back home and can post charts again.

This morning I posted that after two such heavy down days I half expected a bounce.

We got a good one possibly aided by the Quarterly announcement or maybe it would have happened anyway. Who knows?

I also said that dropping well below 4.67 to 4.58 set off many signals to me. Over a couple of days I will post a number of charts for those interested.

In this post I am concentrating only on the short term view ( not the bigger picture). So I am initially only looking at the immediate downward FIB's with two charts, a daily chart followed by a weekly tomorrow. I am also not ignoring the historical impact shorter's have played with their early heavily downward hourly candles (10AM and sometimes followed by 11am). There have been several occasion were their influence has played a important role.

Today firstly a simplistic look ( 5 TD's only low reliability) at the very recent downward thrust and the bounce. Just prior to this bounce we have had two days of heavy early selling which is why I suggested a bounce was possible.

Downward FIB 5.26 to 4.58 followed by the retracement bounce so far of 4.95 (closing today at 4.83) . As you can see on the chart that's a little over a 50% FIB bounce, a serious bounce. However with PLS charts these sort of bounces are not all that uncommon.

For those interested have a look at 14 Nov 22 high 5.60 one day later 15 Nov low 4.60 and two days later 50% bounce to 5.10. In that same downward run we had a peak 14 Nov 5.60 down to 28 Nov 4.24 then followed by a 5 day bounce to 4.95 (54%) on 5 Dec. From that strong bounce the ABC downward FIB reached a low of 3.57 on the 3 Jan and that was a 50% downward extention. That downward sequence had a series of dead cat bounces (DCB).

Another one was In late Feb there was a 5 day (60%) DCB that extented down 62% to 3.36 That's why I don't ignore these formations.

This current bounce could be a one day bounce if the shorter's launch early tomorrow (not confident about this, following on so quickly on from the quarterly, but not something to ignore). However but a multiday bounce is entirely feasible, even reaching the 61.8% FIB (bets not off at this point).

Lets see how this cat performs, a multi-day bounce to around the 5.10 (78%) area would be a more bullish live cat.

First things first, let see tomorrow if 4.95 is exceeded.

Just the way I deal with the markets so that I am not surprised by what plays out as always DYOR.

cheers Lies