PLS chart, page-16981

Hi Folks

I can't help myself, I love playing with charts. I am a stats man and in the following description like most chartist I will come up with various alternatives. However I am going to assign probabilities to these alternative weights as I currently see them from the current charts. Yes they can evolve.

I am using 2 dice with there 36 combinations to describe my opinion of near future likelihood. 11 & above only 3/36 (possible but unlikely, I will use for high targets). 3 & under 3/36 for low target ( possible but unlikely). 10 & above 6/36 and 4 & under 6/36 ( considered a doubtful chance, but not to be ignored). 9 & above 10/36 and 5 & under 10/16 ( a chance) that leaves between 6 to 8 16/36 ( a target range) with 7 being 6/36 my considered target.
I understand that many will consider that using the dice is bullsh*t, but I can't think of an viable understandable alternative to add weight, but also show the risk.

The charts (there are three).

Firstly recent action . Very volatile to say the least. This first chart is on a 4 hourly basis to fit everything in. Again its a bit cluttered, sorry.
It examines action (a) 5.26 to (b) 4.58 then the bounce to (c) 5.09 a formidable FIB 75% bounce. Although it has been seen before on PLS charts (see later).

Next I examine todays action. From yesterdays bounce high (c) 5.09 a fall to (d) 4.82 in the first 4 hours. That was a 53% fall of the (b) to (c) rise was significant. Then in the later half of the day we had another bounce to (e) 4.96 which was a 50% bounce of this morning (c) to (d) fall. So much action in such a short time and that's why I chose a 4hr chart

So what does all this indicate to me looking forward just from this chart. In the coming days there will be sign posts. This recent 4hr bounce to 4.96 can run further upward and if it reaches above (c) 5.09 in coming days it enlarges the (b) to (c) bounce. ( above & 9 ). Reaching (a) 5.26 and above ( above & 11)

It could continue upwards but turn before 5.09 or it may have already reached it bounce peak. Mondays early action could be an indicator, if the shorter's attack early it will be obvious within the first two hours. Alternatively they may delay.

Because of that 50% 4 hr bounce to (e) I am leaning towards a retrace occurring in the coming week Chance of the turn is between 4.96 (already there) and 5.09 ( 7 ).

The next significant point to watch is if the SP falls below (d) 4.82. That would would declare that the most recent bounce, starting this afternoon from (d) 4.82 to (e) 4.96 maybe to 5.08 was indeed a Dead cat bounce (DCB) (6 - 8).

Jumping forward firstly below 4.27 (4 & below) at his point, however seeing the charts for 3-4 weeks may change that.

So below 4.82 opens up the range 4.27 to 4.75. A broad range ( 5 - 9 that's 24/36)

I narrow that range to 4.58 to 4..27. I give a smallish chance that a double bottom could form around 4.58. But my next two charts indicate that that is unlikely (6/36)

My favoured area is 4.27 - 4.55 ( 6 - 8) with a chance of a double bottom around 4.27. My best target is 4.40-4.45 rated as a 7.

I have rambled on to much into the night. Sorry about such a long post.

I was going to follow-up with two comparison charts for you to look at. But that can wait. I won't delete the first comparison historical chart as it will give you a glimpse of where I intend going with my next post.

Just the way I deal with the market so that I am not surprised by what plays out, as always DYOR

cheers Lies.

PS I realise that by doing this post I am pulling my pants down, turning around and bending over, just waiting for my bum to be kicked.