Hi Folks
I haven't posted for a while.
Last week was interesting with a battle between the Bears (shorters) and the Bulls.
The shorters managed to get the SP down into the 4.70s but this was short lived once the corporate presentation was made followed by the Calix announcement the following day. Very interesting news in both cases we certainly have a very forward thinking management. Some of the other companies I hold could learn a number of lessons from PLS.
From the Morgans "substantial holder " post I noticed that on one day ( 6 Jul) they lent out 30m shares. I marked it on the chart. Morgan's are just one of the PLS major shareholders that regularly play with shorters.
There is also the Spod prices playing an influence. Some here have posted the Lith charts and China plays hardball. Graphite prices have also taken a dive recently.
So it's bulls versus bears. As you can see on the chart there have been 10 directional change in a 35 TD period. With the last 3 directional changes lasting 5 days or under.
I am a long holder, looking forward to another franked dividend fairly soonish. So my interest in the charts is from the sidelines, in this situation I am a watcher not a trader.
In the short term I am watching the canary range 4.76-5.09. A sustained breakout (not just a daily spike) above or below my red dashed lines will indicate the next intermediate trend. Because of the the series of lower-highs 5.46, 5.26 and 5.09 I am short term bearish and suspect the break will come below 4.76. So in my two dice probability 7 and below 21/36.
If this happens then a larger canary range of 4.58- 5.26 will be my next focus. You will notice that I have drawn in a FIB from 5.43 to 4.58. If my larger canary sings bearish with a sustained break below 4.58 then the downward FIB extentions of 23% and 38% can't be ignored.
The 23% extention is around 4.38 while the 38% extention is around 4.26 which was a significant low back in early January this year. So a potential double bottom is a chance worth recognising.
I have to add that in the coming days if the SP moved substantially above 5.09 then a bullish scenario needs to be examined. My bearish scenario goes up in smoke, but that's why I use the dice to indicate the weight of my opinion.
The small canary will sing eventually , but which tune, we shall see.
Just the way I deal with the market so that I am not surprised by what plays out, as always DYOR.
cheers Lies
(20min delay)