Hi Folks
Last Sunday I posted this chart. Things for the first 4 days went according to forecast. For announcement day I had a ? as I didn't know what the div would be of the markets reaction to it.
Before the market opened I saw the div announcement of 14c. I thought that the market would treat this in the acceptable range.
I was wrong there was an opening attack reflected in the 10am hourly candle. Yesterdays close 5.11 , 10am hourly candle low 4.675 that's a 54c drop about 8.5% on huge volume. We know whose responsible. Hard to fight such a concerted attack.
Notice on my chart I have an ex-div ellipse (red) that after yesterdays close of 5.11 looked very suspect. Not so suspect today. Ex-div date 5th Sep so 6 more TD's to go until ex-div. Under 4.53 becomes a critical indicator as it brings my blue box ( ex-div low) into play. If 4.53 is breached then 4.27 becomes important as it could become support for a double bottom.
Below 4.27 opens a whole new can of worms to be explored if it happens.
I use dice odds to give a weight to my opinion the possibilities as of todays close.
* Not forming a low below 4.53 ex-div (3/36)
* Forming a low ex-div in the range 4.22 - 4.52 ( this includes a double bottom formation around 4.27, 4.22 would be acceptable) (21/36). Some covering could occur in this range,
* Breaking below 4.22 to form an ex-div low (12/36) Yesterday these odds would have been lower, but a 54c drop in one hour cannot be ignored.
I have posted a second chart that covers the announcement week and includes todays action.
Just the way I deal with the markets so that I am not surprised, as always DYOR.
cheers Lies
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
4 | 716181 | $2.97 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$2.98 | 235000 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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4 | 716181 | 2.970 |
17 | 980156 | 2.960 |
6 | 981379 | 2.950 |
12 | 664803 | 2.940 |
9 | 184129 | 2.930 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
2.980 | 235000 | 1 |
2.990 | 457316 | 4 |
3.000 | 118406 | 13 |
3.010 | 116981 | 9 |
3.020 | 1778932 | 26 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 30/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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