Hi Folks
I thought that this charting thread needed a chart.
Next week is announcement week so I thought it would be useful to show the chart behaviour surrounding the previous div announcement;
The week of the div announcement, last time Monday was unusual and unexpected , a heavy red candle day with a serious drop on the previous close.
Will it happen tomorrow? It would again be unexpected but I have no idea. What followed last time was three green candles which was expected.
On my chart I have a purple candle for Mon followed by 3 rising green candles.
Div announcement day (Friday) last time a serious spike, strong open 4.66 then spike to 4.79, low 4.48 close 4.53. Range for the day 31c. This time could be the same, however markets expectations and the div delivered will play a strong role in the shape of the candle.
Three days to rec-date. Last time I thought unusual as all 3 days were below announcement day candle. No serious buying pressure before rec-day. I have no idea if it will happen again.
Ex-div day . Last time an expected drop (closed 4.08), then a slight bounce for a while and then the next downward leg started in earnest. Just a lack of buying pressure which is to be expected. It took 15 TD's post ex-div to reach a low 3.36. After that low it took another 17TD's to reach the ex-div close again. So a total span of 32TD's. Interesting?
Last time post ex-div there were some give away FIB's about the eventual low. It may happen again this time. We shall see.
With my chart I have a theoretical announcement week bounce but using FIB's around announcement is wishful thinking.
Back to my scenario's I proposed so long ago (1 week).
Scenario 2. Breakout with a peak in the high $5 low $6 is dead.
Scenario 1, C&H breaking above 5.43 and heading towards the mid 5.60's. The mid 5.60's may be a bridge to far, but an outside chance of 5.50's is still possible but remote depending on the div announcement. Dice chance 3/36.
Scenario 3. The peak of 5.43 remains unbroken and my canary remains silent for quite a while. With what's happening in China I may send her back to the nest for a while. Dice odds 33/36.
The break below my blue horizontal line 4.58 to recently 4.53 is bearish. I also have a pink horizontal line at 4.27 a significant previous low. Given the charts history post div announcement its very feasible that a lower-low than this is possible. I'll watch the FIB's post ex-divs.
Back when 4.27 was set I had contemplated adding to my PLS holdings I partially free carry my PLS shares and while 4.27 was tempting it would not have allowed a total free carry. I also had other fish on the line who's prospects were brighter. The progress below the pink line (if it happens) will certainly capture my attention for total free carry potential.
So if you thought last week was too exciting, what's ahead could easily match it, both short term and long term.. We shall see?
Just the way I deal with the markets so that I am not surprised by what plays out, as always DYOR.
cheers Lies
(20min delay)