bit of a continuation of the crab walk to nowhere much in...

bit of a continuation of the crab walk to nowhere much in particular.. lots of big macro things working away on the markets and one of the BIG macros is the geo-political clustrrfolk of oil which must have a bearing on the battery material of the electrification age... someone on here is bound to be smarter than I am and can post something tracking Lithium against oil... obviously as a 1 trick pony PLS is quite dependent on whatever happens to lithium pricing.. so as Oil comes back into play then so should PLS as Lithium adjusts? I think its important to understand the fundamental side before seeing how it manifested itself through the numbers on the charts.

Yesterday was a Doji on both candle and Heinekens which is usually a sign of impending change... Given that the Slow Stochastic is only just showing signs of strength and the other 2 MACD indicators are looking shaky... I think a revisit to the lower arm of the upward blue pitchfork is more likely. The cool thing about PLS is even on red days green things can happen due to the range that it trades within. The overall market is trending down but PLS is holding steady which is in keeping with its high Beta. Beta is the movement of the share price relative to the market so standing still on a decline is actually a sign of this as is moving faster than the market either up or down. Beta and volatility are pretty similar... Alpha is the absolute return which is what we are all hunting just in different ways, as I've been able to recycle this trading parcel a few times using put options, the current share price is 30c less than what I bought this trading parcel for but the absolute return is pretty good. So after Alpha and Beta comes my friends Delta and Theta... Delta is the rate of change and is pretty important in options and their cousin, Structured Positions. A structured position, at it's simplest, is just buying a series of calls/puts to kind of aim for an outcome so buying some call options for upside but also buying some puts for downside protection, things can get a whole lot more advanced but thats it in a nutshell.. anyway delta helps create the option price and theta (time value/decay) helps change the price, you can also just buy for theta (time value) etc but it all gets a bit complicated.. the example that I'm heading towards are the September 14 $4.90 and $5 call options that I've been buying a few of... Theta is now starting to erode their value and delta will have to pick up to get over the inevitable time decay... time decays, thats inevitable in life and in financial markets you can assign and actual value to this decay/change... so my 2 way bet on the movement of PLS is now being eroded by the lack of movement up or down over a period of time in which more volatility was expected due to the very high historical volatility of PLS... so the crab walk to no where just soaks up a day at a time and each day that goes...theta gets harder to climb....

With Theta now an issue the $4.31 September 21 puts were rolled forward to next week $5.01 which allowed funds to roll September 7 $5.51down to $5.26 September 14 and bring both sets into the same week to allow a roll down and out on any rally and hopefully the ability to close out the $5.01s and bank the difference as profit... or so goes the theory... just in case there are still the $4.80 September 21 puts which will allow the trading parcel to be sold for a profit on a material decline. There is still the possibility that a binding agreement for LTR hits the table which would no doubt put a rocket under the PLS price and the calls would go green.. there is also the high possibility that PLS while crab walking to no where creates enough of a jump up in price to hop out of calls at a break even or slight bruise...

all in all... dunno? PLS often goes any way it wants and triggers green on red days and vice versa and every single point in between... always a good place to have a both ways bet.