Over the years I have learned a lot from Mr Market on what constitute a trend. You can be as simplistic or complicated in your definition but using a set of tools or tool is useful to define some rules to filter out those 'what if I sell and it tales off...' mindset. This is the trappings of trying to find out the unknown (future) and attempting to rinse every single pip or $ out of an investment.
I am going by your holdings through posts and I've noticed they are all Specs on first glance. Nothing wrong with holding specs as long as one is aware that volatility is very much different from the XJO or top 20. Sell in fear and buy in greed is the opposite of rationality because it tends to force the sale at the bottom and purchase at the top. If you turn this into sell in greed and buy in fear, it is loosely defined as playing the swing.
I will declare that I took some off the table at 38C today, could not have known 38.5 was the top as it was placed more than a week ago! When 38.5C hit the greed in me for a split second felt regret at the time because the feeling was that it could continue to 41C then the perceived breakout. So the binary scenario is that it was a relief V regret if price continue up today?? Not me, making a $ is as good as making a $, that's all.
Ask yourself in Dec/Jan explosive move, kick yourself for not selling if you were fortunate enough to play the swing, get out then reload OR patiently hold until today? I doubt there is a right or wrong answer, just capital gains. Some takes a lot longer than others and you don't demand what Mr Market should reward you.
After so many years of looking for the holy grail system, tool or guru to follow, I realise it is all in the mind. It is us mere mortals that starts off wanting a bag, when given one expect another and another etc. We are all looking for that CSL multi decade hold sleep well at night but have a look what happened in 2001-2003.
PLS Price at posting:
36.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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