I think we will see some stock rotation out of the higher cost/ marginal producers into the lowest cost/ tier 1 asset owners given the current weakness in lithium prices. See below extract from Macquarie research report highlighting the next problem will will likely see is that of asset impairments. The only producer at present that appears immune from an asset impairment is PLS. The others look vulnerable to write downs.
If I want continue exposure to lithium I am going to go with the lowest risk.... to me, that is PLS.
Lithium prices declined further
• Soft market sentiment continues to weigh on lithium prices with China Lithium Carbonate 99.5% (US$/t, ex-VAT) trading at ~US$15,000/t. This price is below low-grade integrated lepidolite produces in China and some African spodumene producers, according to our estimates. While miners could continue operating with a negative margin for a short period of time, persistent low prices could translate to operating rate reduction, in our view.
• We review costs for Australian lithium majors using CY24 C1 costs adjusted for shipping charges and a conversion costs of US$4,200 per tone of lithium carbonate produced. On our estimates, most miners' costs (in LCE/t) remain below the spot LCE price of ~US $15,000/t.
• Spot spodumene prices (China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF) also maintained the downward trend and breached the US$1,500/t mark, at US$1,490/t. This price is below ore reserve pricing assumption of US$1,639/t used by Mt Marion and Wodgina (MIN) and US$1,500/t used by Mt Cattlin (AKE). We note PLS has used a spodumene price (SC6%) of US$1,450/t. We see increased risk of impairment should spodumene price remain subdued over the short term.
Extract Macquarie Research Report - "Australian Lithium and Rare Earths Miners" dated 29 November 2023
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