There is a glut of batteries and excess capacity in China . Cost...

There is a glut of batteries and excess capacity in China . Cost reduction including cheaper raw materials has to play out over 2024. Some expensive Australian ore will be replaced with cheaper African and Brazilian ore over 2024 and 2025 as the excess capacity is absorbed.

"SMM research indicates that market expectations for LFP in 2023 were too high, with production capacity growth rate far exceeding demand growth rate by 152%, as capacity increased from 1.48 million tons at the end of 2022 to 3.73 million tons at the end of 2023. The production capacity growth rate for LFP in 2023 was 152%, which is significantly higher than the production growth rate of 56%. However, the demand growth rate was below expectations."





https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/ev-and-battery-supply-chain-2024-outlook/

There appears to have been a surplus of over 200 GWh of lithium-ion batteries in China alone last year. Automakers are likely sitting on secured cell supply for EV sales that failed to materialise.

Storing batteries is an expensive business, so automakers may have a more cautious appetite for purchasing cells in 2024. Along with reducing battery raw materials prices, 2024 should see highly competitive battery prices, leading some to diversify their cell chemistries.

China is poised to spearhead the development of more affordable cells, exploring sodium-ion as the next low-cost tech. Large-scale commercialisation of sodium-ion cells is already underway, with BYD initiating construction at its inaugural 30 GWh factory earlier this month.