PLS chart, page-20663

Hi Windrider

Brave call? Calling a bottom here.

Your a braver man than me Gunga Din, is a saying that comes to mind.

I'm a Stat's man and I like the hard evidence based facts. I don't like analysts speculations based on questionable numbers, much of which is coming out of China. Also go back to the Mar and June quarter 2023 and see what they were writing. by Sep there was a lot of egg on their faces.

The facts from PLS quarterly reports based on $US prices for shipped Spod 5.3%
Dec 2022 $5668 to Mar 2023 $4840 drop 14.6% (mild drop)
Mar 2023 $4840 to Jun 2023 $3256 drop 32.7% (strong drop)
Jun 2023 $3256 to Sep 2023 $2240 drop 31.2% (strong drop)
Sep 2023 $2240 to Dec 2023 $1113 drop 50.3% (very severe drop)

Next I have a range of shipped Spod 5.3% $US prices for the Mar report released in 10 weeks, assuming a further drop by apply the following drop categories to the Dec price of $US1113. Weak drop (7.5%), Mild drop (15%) , Moderate drop (22.5%) , Strong drop (30%) and Severe drop (40%)

Weak drop (7.5%) Dec 2023 $1113 to Mar 2024 $1029
Mild drop(15%) Dec 2023 $1113 to Mar 2024 $946
Moderate drop (22.5%) Dec 2023 $1113 to Mar 2024 $862
Strong drop (30%) Dec 2023 $1113 to Mar 2024 $779
Severe drop (40%) Dec 2023 $1113 to Mar 2024 $668

This bubble has some resemblance to a bell curve. On the way up start from Mar 2021 we has 590, 825, 1300, 1750 2650
reversed it looks like:

2650, 1750, 1300, 825, 590. I'll put the last 3 quarters underneath for comparison of the other side of the bell curve starting Jun 2023
3256, 2240, 1113. ?

So the bell curve suggesting ? somewhere in the zone $800 to $900 so in the moderate (22.5%) drop zone.

Lets see if you call for a Li price bottom eventuates in 10 weeks time before the next report. I would call anywhere between $1050-1150 as a suggestion of a turn. We shall see? DYOR

By the way notice on the daily chart we have an unfilled gap 3.40-3.47 which looks like filling.

cheers Lies