Well, until Iran decided to attack Israel, I had this as the...

Well, until Iran decided to attack Israel, I had this as the projected path:



Now, it is kind of stuffed up, which is the technical term for "I think wave 4 has gone too low at 78%". However we do seem to be bouncing off the lower ichimoku trend line which is positive, but it clearly can't go lower here or the models will have to be reset.

At the moment, in the immediate term it is this (below) that is determining, or at least forewarning direction, and until these futures are lifting cleanly we are going to continue to fluff around (obviously, as we approach July, it will be the next contract that will matter, but this one is good for a couple of months):


And lastly, the multi month pattern embedded in these numbers maps our sustainable trend:



As can be seen we are now trending green over the last 90 days, so it would seem that the bottom has been locked in and recovery is the slowly evolving trend.


Future pre-run spot prices and stock prices. Spot seems to feed momentum in the stocks, so for a sustained uplift the spot prices have to rise solidly over an extended period. Stocks will gyrate with the futures on a short term (hourly) basis.