Hi Folks
As promised a follow-up look at the weekly charts, with some FIB's and some extra's included.
Extra's first.
Have a look at the smaller downward trend in the first half of 2022. Blue lower case letters
Three lower-highs (a), (b) and (c) in couple with four lower-low (w), (x), (y) and finally (z). Notice (w) and (x) lows close together and (z) way below all of them.
Next we look at the bigger downward trend that started in Oct 2022. Purple capital letters this time.
Three lower-highs (A), (B) and (C). Coupled so far with three lower-lows (W), (X), (Y) and by going below (Y) at 3.10, has started the path down to (Z).
Notice (W) and (X) lows close together again.
Sure looks like a repeating pattern to me, but make of it what you will. Just drawing attention to it.
Normal weekly analysis.
40WMA peaked in Oct 2023 and falling with the slope of the fall increasing recently. (bearish)
10WMA peaked 5 weeks ago and started falling crossing below the 40WMA two weeks ago (bearish)
I have a strong bearish signal when after a period of the weekly hi-lo candle trade entirely above the 10WMA (bullish) it then firstly trades entirely below the 10WMA for the first time and confirmed the following week. This signal ignores the weekly candles that cut across the 10WMA.
On my chart I have labelled them historically with the downward arrow. This bearish signal first surfaces 4 weeks ago and was confirmed strongly the following week (bearish)
MACD turned negative 4 weeks ago and RSI(5) is in the red zone. (bearish)
FIB's. A-wave downward from (B) to (Y) , B-wave retracement bounce from (Y) to (C) reached the 61.8% FIB level then commenced the C-wave downward extention leg (confirmed by going well below (y))
C-wave downward extention targets. Most common FIB extention targets are between the 23.6% and 38.2% drawn on the chart. Notice that the unfilled daily gap lays above the 23.6% FIB. That suggests that it is likely to be eventually filled, although I am expecting some form of significant bounce somewhere along the way before setting the next lower-low (Z).
C-wave downward extention targets between 38.2% and 50% are less common but not rare. So (Z) occurring below 2.27 cannot be totally ignored. Even a chance of (Z) getting down towards (z).
So many bearish signals. A look at the monthly charts adds confirmation.
Just the way I deal with the markets so that I am not surprised by what plays out, as always DYOR.
cheers Lies
(20min delay)