PLS chart, page-22461

Those who are biased toward a bearish case will most likely read that as a sign that PLS' sp will fall a lot more. After all, they will argue, ALB, SQM, Ganfeng and Tianqi have fallen much more than PLS. So it is time now for PLS to fall much more to be in par with those miners.

This bearish case argument seems to be reasonable; very commonsensical. But as a matter of fact, this bearish case argument is not supported by the statistic. The statistic shows that PLS so far still outperforms those other miners. There is no sign indicating that PLS' outperformance has been slackening.


Unfortunately, Commsec can't show Ganfeng and Tianqi (or I just don't know how).

Common sense vs statistic; I think statistic is more trustworthy. Of course, for some unforeseeable reasons, it is possible that next Monday is the start of the slackening of PLS' outperformance, which will take time to be apparent in the statistic. But what is likelihood of that happening when PLS has been outperforming for the last 3 years? My common sense says that if PLS' outperformance is not sustainable, its sp would have fallen much more months ago. And my common sense is supported by the statistic!

What about the argument that short selling will drag PLS' sp to less than $2? Possible but not probable. The reason is big (professional) shorters are not in the business to destroy a profitable company such as PLS. They are smart enough to never kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. The lenders or owners of the shares don't want their investment gets destroy either. I am sure they would demand to have their shares back when they feel that the short selling has put their investment into a danger zone.

Anyway, ALB and SQM have shown a sign of rebound. PLS will very likely follow suit.