Hi DfsWhen we last exchanged views you on 8 July included the...

Hi Dfs

When we last exchanged views you on 8 July included the following.

"Australia Spodumene Concentrate（6%,CIF China）Spot PriceJul.081,020 ~ 1,1601,0900USD/mt7,434.07 ~ 8,454.437,944.250CNY/mt.
The latest SC6 price is approximately where the price has been for the entire of Q2 so let’s guesstimate US $1000 to be conservative and adjust for SC5.2 and exchange rate and call it AUD $1300."

I was focused on $US price for 5.3% spod (included in our Qtrly reports). In several posts I outlined my mistrust about spot prices coming out of China.

I think that that has been verified as there is a big gap between $US1000 and $US840 even allowing for your conservative estimate. I have been fooled before.

I am going to follow up with an update to my hand-drawn. I don't fight the trends in the charts until I see some hard evidence arrive to back up the reversal of a downward trend. In my follow-up chart we will see some early evidence that the drop in spod price has shown some signs of possibly turning upwards.

The 4% rise evidenced in todays report could be an indictor but it will take a further 32.5% rise to get back to the $US1113 achieved in the Dec 2023 report.

So my reaction to todays news is that the downward trend has currently flattened. While I was expecting a 10-15% possible drop, my chart will show the flattening. I have no idea how long this flattening will go on for. The Sep report will reveal factual evidence of any confirmed trend rise in spod price.

As far as the shipping data I was hesitant because I didn't know how much of the shipped spod was going to JV partners in a contractual obligation and how much was going to paying customers. I'll give it more weight when I look at it again.

I did note the increase in production this qrt from 179 to 226. A strong production increase. I also noted that the Shipped spod 235 was greater than production so they delved into the previous two qtr's stockpiles somewhat.

From the report while there was as significant rise in revenue from last qtr, I also noted that this FY years $AUD revenue in the annual report due soon will be $AUD 1.25B down from the FY2022/2023 annual report of $AUD4.1B.

The market did not seem to be overly impressed by the quarterly report today. I suspect that they were expecting a higher spod price rise than 4%

My updated chart of Spod price will follow.

cheers Lies