Hi Folks
In my last post I eluded to how I play with the Qrtly SP Hi/lo candles.
I thought I would give you a first taste of what I look at. I like the quarterly Hi/Lo candles as it eliminates a lot of noise from the chart
Q1 Pink, Q2 yellow, Q3 Blue & Q4 Green. I use 12MMA (green) and 60MMA(red) so essentially 1 year and 5 years moving averages.
Things to notice.
* During the SP boom 2023-22-23 the candle lows rarely touched or cut into the 12MMA. Essentially trading well above it. MACD was positive during those years.
* Peaked in Q4 of 2022, then followed by two lower highs. The low in Q$ 2022 has been followed by three lower lows. Bearish
* 12MMA peaked Q3 2023 and has been falling since and MACD turned negative about at the same time. Bearish. The 12MMA at present seems to be heading towards the 60MMA with a possible cross-over.
* I also want to point out in the first Qrtly candle post is the big FIB starting at 12.5c in Q1 2020 rising to 5.66 in Q$ 2022. So far the retracement has gone below the 50% retracement FIB. Bearish.
* Finally this current Q3 2024 Hi/lo (still underway) has a large gap below the 12MMA so far. If in the coming 2 months the Qrt high does not cut into the 12MMA (at around 3.50) then I consider it to be very bearish, although it may not play out as we are sort of overdue for a bounce.. But DYOR.
Just a first taste. There is a another smaller FIB to look at next.
Cheers Lies
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