This is my understanding also. In regards to your other two...

This is my understanding also. In regards to your other two points re. OPEX and spodumene prices I guess that is the million (or billion) dollar question! Fair to say OPEX should be more easy to forecast than spod prices at the moment. From the HY, forecast Opex is in the $385-415 USD/t long term, excl shipping, so I would think my $500USD/t is pretty reasonable.

In terms of the spodumene pricing, the way I look at it is that every day there are new giga-factories being opened, but very few mines coming online over the next few years. The next mine of any significance to come online will be CXO towards the end of the year, with the next one after that being anyone's guess. CXO will bring on a modest amount of product, however in no way will this even take a dent into the demand. Other mines, like Wodinga and some others that may re-start/ramp up already have pre-existing offtakes and agreements in place, so it isn't like any of their new product is going into the open market.

As of today, I believe that contract prices for PLS should be pushing $3000USD/t, and my guess is contract pricing for the second half of this calendar year will probably be closer to $5000USD/t. And then spot pricing is anyone's guess to be honest. The next BMX auction will be pretty telling, with my guess for this to be in the $5500-7000 USD/t. Yes, I am a lithium bull at the moment, but can't see any way that supply is going to going to get close to catching up with demand over the next 12-24 months.

Obviously new mines will ramp up and supply will ramp up significantly, but as anyone who has been around here for a while knows, getting a mine built, operational and optimized is a far more time consuming project than you may think, and I am yet to see any recent lithium mine being built to their original time frames and efficiency levels, with PLS probably being closest thus far.

It is going to be a very interesting 6-12 months IMHO.

Pap