PLS chart, page-6845

Don't get me wrong, I am very bullish on the short to medium term pricing, and I don't feel there will be a dramatic price crash this year or next, but likely a decent fall in spot prices, with a minor rise or negliible change in contract prices to a similar level. But as current market dynamics show, it is not the present price that will dictate share price but the future outlook. Right now prices are clearly at all time highs, and appear to still be rising, or at the very least holding steady, yet the SP is crumbling. IMO we will see extremely profitable pricing for the short to medium term and this will generate a large amount of free cashflow capable of covering all the planned capex projects without needing to raise capital or debt. But long term is is unlikely that prices will remain above the US$800-900 mark which previously was viewed as incentive pricing, as other mines will continue to open and expand, as well as recycling operations until it gets back down to that level
By my estimates a long term spod price of around $800 at the ultimate goal of 1mtpa would generate earnings per share around $0.17, for a long term P/E of around 12.8 at current pricing. In my mind this is a good long term hold and dividend play, but expecting multiples of the share price from here is likely to result in disappointment.