PLS (ASX) PLS chart

Originally posted by Darkstone: ↑

Ideally yes, but it only works if your trade parcel is less then a 75% of the standard trade line & preferably 25%. So PLS is pretty much optimum the normal trade line is about 100 to 150k on a price and at that volume it moves quite smoothly without hesitating. Above 150k it slows down and may turn away. Thus the optimal trade parcel is about 25k. You can move 4-6 of these over 2 to 3 cents pretty easily and drop them into the trade without impacting the flow. The volumes are high enough that moving a packet of 100 to 150k at the edges of the channel is barely noticed.

Thus if the price was say $1 you would need a very high volume to move 500k shares, and there aren't too many shares at $1 doing 1m to 1.5m shares on a line. You really need instos involved to get those kinds of volumes happening. The other factor is there needs to be something moderating the trades - a market maker or hedge fund or other instos. Left to their own devices retailers tend to go nuts and get over excited or overly depressed so the share is likely to do nothing for ages and then go berserk. This makes it very hard to reliably and consistently apply TA over the short term - probably better over weeks of months. I think the key differentiator of retailers compared to instos is the former tends to trade on FA and look long into the future (where value accumulates indefinitely), whereas hedges and instos tend to trade TA and justify it with FA looking only a short term into the future - like 12 months away at most. I have no proof of this other than observation, but it means where there is no insto presence there is a load of unmoderated emotion and things get out of hand easily.

That means that S&P 200/300 shares are really the limit for this kind of trading, unless it is a sector like Li where the instos are funding it and there is a perpetual search for new likely success stories.

In a share like PLS on a 10c move it costs about 1c in brokerage, and you need 2-3 c either end to do the trade so the net is a profit on around 10 - 4, so about 6c, on 100k shares that is about 6k. Now the movements are usually a little more than 10c so you can get maybe 8k on average, BUT if you are out by 1c the thing can turn very fast and that profit can rapidly evaporate, or worse go negative and on the days when it drops it can obliterate 20c incredibly fast, and in that you move at a loss of more than 20c because you have to add brokerage at either end.

You are correct about the fundamental FA profile. The stock must have good FA, or at least the retailers must believe in the FA even if it is really not good, in that there needs to be a strong buy side and a floor at which value is perceived to exist.

Expand

Thankyou Sir, you also covered a question I forgot to ask, that is how you spread your trades to match volume or play within the volume on the price steps.

There's a lot of learning in your posts, and I mostly understand the concepts you put forward in context of making $$, which is indicative or your experience, but if I had to explain what you do...., nah, no chance, my brain struggles to deal with the daily charts, let a lone a 1 minute chart.

I do trade regularly, a little more passive when compared to what you are doing. Yesterday, I tried chanting your name out loud with the hope of improving my success rate, but my office furniture started floating.....

Thanks again

No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	16986	$2.97

No.

Vol.

Price($)

16986

$2.97

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$2.98	175531	5

Price($)

Vol.

No.

$2.98

175531

No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	16986	2.970
14	59285	2.960
27	571098	2.950
10	234230	2.940
6	134655	2.930

No.

Vol.

Price($)

16986

2.970

59285

2.960

571098

2.950

234230

2.940

134655

2.930

Price($)	Vol.	No.
2.980	175531	5
2.990	68683	6
3.000	338778	10
3.010	194640	8
3.020	26979	8

Price($)

Vol.

No.

2.980

175531

2.990

68683

3.000

338778

3.010

194640

3.020

26979

(20min delay)
Last $2.98		Change 0.110(3.83%)		Mkt cap ! $8.969B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$2.99	$3.10	$2.95	$98.90M	32.90M

Thankyou Sir, you also covered a question I forgot to ask, that...

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