Hi Folks
Just a quick follow on from yesterdays post concerning ALB's downfall and the PLS Qtrly Shipped numbers and the Spod 6% $US prices achieved.
ALB was down 6.6% overnight to 119.64, so approaching again that unfilled gap of 106.38-114.8. With the previously shown correlation between ALB and PLS SP movements, it's little wonder that PLS dropped sharply today.
I am representing The PLS qtrly report data for a number of reasons.
Firstly note the incredible $US price rise difference from the previous Qtr from the June 2021 ($US825) to Dec 2022 ($US5,668) , Staggering. This was inevitably followed by the drop from Dec 2022 ($US5,668) to so far Sep 2023 (US2,240). As a Stat's man this looks like a Bell curve with a sharp rise, then rounded top, then followed by a sharp drop. For the next Qtr Dec 2023 report, I'm expecting average $US revenue sales to be somewhere around the $US1650-1800 region based on the bell curve trend.
All of this trend is self evident and yet people are surprise by how the Lithium miners and LIT eft companies are tanking. Coupled with this they are surprised by the shorting activity going on. Yet it's obvious, the number don't lie. The whole sector is struggling.
Secondly consider this, for the next calendar year 2024 PLS total revenue from shipped sales may indeed struggle to match the Dec 2022 Qtr revenue.
For those obsessed with the smoothed green medium line charts plug in the $US Quarterly sales from June 2021 to Sep 2023 and that will produce an obvious trend that will indeed provide some form of predictive measure of the direction the PLS SP could go.
Thirdly any greenfield Lithium projects, currently underway, might find it difficult to further explore and then fund any eventual mine development through to production. Raising development capital could prove hazardous. Eventually Lith supply could again become a problem, but when?
Finally, will there be a different pricing for Lithium and Graphite products between China and the rest of the world because the sector is currently so dominated. Maybe?
Just my thoughts. Of one thing I am sure, this sector is going to have to change fairly rapidly to adjust to this evolving environment. PLS has coped with difficult times before and survived to become stronger. I hope history repeats itself.
So DYOR
cheers LIes
-----------------------------------------Shipped DMT -------------$US price Spod 6%-------------$ US Price difference from previous Qtr
June 2021 Qtr 4 2020/21--------- 95.9-----------------------------825
Sep 2021 Qtr 1 2021/22--------- 91.5----------------------------1,300 ----------------------------- + $475
Dec 2021 Qtr 2 2021/22 -------- 78 ----------------------------1,750 ----------------------------- + $450
Mar 2022 Qtr 3 2021/22 -------- 58.3 -------------------------- 2,650 ---------------------------- + $900
Jun 2022 Qtr 4 2021/22 ------ 132.4 ------------------------- 4,267 ---------------------------- + 1,617
Sep 2022 Qtr 1 2022/23 ------ 138.2 ------------------------- 4,818 ---------------------------- + 551
Dec 2022 Qtr 2 2022/23 ------ 148.6 ------------------------- 5,668 ---------------------------- + 850
Mar 2023 Qtr 3 2022/23 ------ 149.3 ------------------------- 4,840 ----------------------------- - 828
Jun 2023 Qtr 4 2022/23 ------- 179.3 ------------------------ 3,256 ----------------------------- -1,584
Sep 2023 Qtr 1 2023/24 ------- 146.4 ----------------------- 2,240 ----------------------------- -1,016
Dec 2023 Qtr 2 2023/24 ------- ? DMT ---------------------- ? $US ---------------------------- ? difference
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