How long can we expect PLS to run with the market for lithium products?
Lets face it, Li batteries probably have a limited life before superior technology comes to the fore. It has happened already and will happen again. One of the "principles" of technology is that the innovation period before one technology replaces another keeps shortening. That was the thesis of Alvin Tofler and it does appear to have been happening.
EVs are the current emergent vehicle technology coupled with Li batteries but these batteries are not without their issues (e.g. heat, stability, maximum rate of charging, energy density, longevity).
Current technological development with new technologies is with solid state batteries and fuel cells and maybe others too. None of these have yet become economical and proven, but we should not assume that this cannot change, or that some new technology that is superior to Li batteries will not arise.
Based on previous technologies (eg.PbO, CMn, NiCad, NiMH) the technology lifetime is indeed shortening.
The current quest for EVs, seems to be solid state batteries but fuel cells must also be in the running. Yes, they do have issues at present that are holding them back but do not ignore the fact that Li batteries have been around for decades before their issues were resolved to the extent that they have became a viable technology for EVs. Even today Toyota continues to use NiMH batteries in some new vehicles.
The point that I am leading into is that we should not assume that just because PLS has many years supply of Li that it will gain profitably from it over the extended lifetime of mining. We can also expect a massive increase in supply of Li going forward. This will come from both greenfield mines such as PLS and brownfield. Even with the expected rapid growth in EV production, we should not expect the same pricing on Li ore that we expect PLS to achieve in the short term.
Hence, it is circumspect to discount some of the hype around massive increases in PLS resources because they may not be able to get advantage from this as a result of technology change and supply pressures.
In conclusion, I am aware that PLS management looks to maximise its near-term production of Li for profits. This is commendable for any mining company but especially so when there are issues of competitive technology involved and not merely competitive supply.
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