BOEQ's Research Report from September (which is on the PLS website for all to see) highlighted a number of important things. Assuming a $650 spodumene concentrate price, and a 4mtpa operation, the post tax NPV, using a 10% discount factor and a 70cA, was $1.83b. Fully diluted that's about $1.35/share. That research note stated a price target of $1.25 and a strategic target of $2.50.
The report commented at a 10% discount factor was probably too conservative in our low interest rate environment, which would mean a higher NPV.
I think there are a number of factors which have come to light since September, which lead me (and others) to believe that a valuation of something more like $3b is well within reach within a very short period of time.
Factor in:
1. Latest spodumene pricing of $900US/t. Costs remain the same.
2. Potential to produce technical grade (higher pricing than $900US)
3. Potential for a 6mtpa operation
4. Potential for an 8mtpa operation (yes this is very possible)
5. Resource very likely to head north of 200mt (low contanimants and tantalum credits!!) and then higher again!!
6. Addition of the Dakota tenements
7. Potential for downstream profits via strategic JV's - this will jet propel the NPV!!
8. DSO possibility for early cashflow
Resource upgrade, finance and deals to come in short order, leading the Analysts to strongly upgrade their price targets, in my view.
The next few weeks should be inspiring with a bit of luck.
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$2.83 |
Change
-0.020(0.70%) |
Mkt cap ! $8.476B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$2.83 | $2.92 | $2.81 | $28.77M | 10.08M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
84 | 186586 | $2.83 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$2.84 | 201857 | 79 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
71 | 199763 | 2.830 |
33 | 392636 | 2.820 |
32 | 503026 | 2.810 |
59 | 852705 | 2.800 |
18 | 255629 | 2.790 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
2.840 | 195313 | 77 |
2.850 | 366457 | 29 |
2.860 | 307209 | 21 |
2.870 | 168349 | 11 |
2.880 | 26459 | 7 |
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