Did the odds of sector reversal increased this week?.
From a weekly perspective, WC8 moved from 36 to 36. So a small drop.
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So what is happening? Last 2 weeks I have been writing that Li sector seemed to be in a confused, with no strong direction, both up and down. This week very similar play, nearly. Last Friday Chinese Li stocks had a big gain, biggest for last week. Same this week. Ganfeng and Tinaqi were flying today. At one stage it looked like they would do the usual max limit of 10% for the day today. But then left it for another day. Still a very good day, both rising by over 6%. From a weekly perspective, again a very strong week for both, close to 10% gain on the week. So strong good signs from there. Now lets look at the other big factor important for reversal. ALB last week finished at 95.14. Yesterday it finished at 95.15. So flat till now, but should gain something tonight on another strong Chinese Li day. But still maybe well short of 10% gains that Chinese players made. So not bad, but not as good as the other. The good thing is, it has held this level. We were 72 in September. So still good. We need both, Chinese and US, for confirmation of reversal. They might not go in tandem, but as long as the lagging is catching up, rather than leading one falling behind, the reversal journey will be in play. So where are we now? I still feel that the bottom that we saw in early September, the reversal journey is still intact. We still don't have confirmation though. ALB above 106, Ganfeng above 37, and both staying above that. I feel that will be a very strong signal. But most stocks are still 20/50% above their lows, average between 30/35%. That is still very good. We didn't lose this week, in fact it was a decent week. So lets see.
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WC8 too is playing the macro. But it moved from its low of 18.5 to 43.5 - a gain of around 130%, but much larger than any or most Li stocks. So there is always a threat that it could drop big. When sector sentiment looked weak, it did play weak. So there is no denying, that for next leg, or to make big gains, it needs sector help - at least neutral, if not positive. But still to hold mid 30s is a strong play. It has played much stronger than other Li stocks, and has not lost that tag yet. I still feel that overall Li sector has to confirm reversal, to make really good gains. But it looks like WC8 is more than ready if that were to happen.
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Personally for last 2 weeks I have been writing that I was getting out of Li sector. After watching the play early in this week, I felt I have to be in it. But I still haven't got a very strong signal, but a good signal. Also, the other sector where I play big, the Uranium sector, is in consolidation mode. That too is in flux which way it will go. This week Uranium sector played slightly weak, had a big gain recently, so looks to be in consolidation mode. So the sector play that I do, I am now two-thirds Uranium, one-third Lithium. I picked up a fair few Lithium stocks this week. Rest playing health, ree, gold etc. I picked up some WC8 today, at average 33. Last week I had written that I had exited at average 38 - I had had a very good play as my buy average was 22, I am hoping I can have another leg . So bought back slightly lower than my sell, but not far away. But have only bought half of what I was holding before. Want to see a few more days. Happy to pay higher if it looks good. I want trend more than price.
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So what may happen next week? I feel we are in a much better situation than when I was writing last Friday. I felt last week, odds of going up or down was even, or even tilting towards going down. This week I feel odds tilt towards the upside. Lets hope we at least maintain this level. That itself will be positive. But there is a decent chance, that we keep moving up, even if its 2 step up, 1 down. Will that happen? Let's hope so. Enjoy your weekend and all the best
(20min delay)