Sector still trying to find a footing?.
From a weekly perspective, WC8 moved from 33.5 to 32, so small drop.
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So what is happening? Its now 1 month I am writing the same. Li sector still in uncertain state, trying to find a footing, trying to determine whether the next phase is an up phase or a down phase. So status quo for last 1 month. Or is it? I have also been writing that last week we were better than a week before and so on. I feel we are, from a sector perspective better than last week. So slow incremental improvements, but not a decisive move yet.
What is positive:- US Li stocks slightly ahead
- ALB made 2 attempts to get over 102, did that intra-day, but has not been able to sustain that. But trying.
- Big ASX Li stocks like PLS/LTR up for the week
- Chinese stocks, Ganfeng/Tianqi average gain around 5% for the week
- Ganfeng made 2 attempts to get over 37, a number which I feel is must for positive move. Did that twice intra-day, but could not finish above.
- Spot price slightly up on the weekly
What is negative:
- ALB still below 106, Ganfeng below 37
- Stocks are making big jumps intra-day but are not able to sustain the gains till the end of the day, as if sellers are waiting. Very noticeable for US and Chinese Li stocks
- Many ASX Li stocks were in red this week. Most have come down a fair bit from their recent highs. Many are closer towards the bottom than the recent high.
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WC8 too is playing the macro. A lot of ASX Li stocks were feeling the confused state and drifting down. WC8 too in that phase, though nearly held the weekly price in the end. It panicked yesterday, reached around 27, but that is not unusual for WC8. On good days it goes higher, on bad lower - has a wider swing. Much of the play happening around 30 (+/-), getting no clear direction for now. We wait.
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Personally, last week I wrote that after a good play from 22 to 38, I have been buying for last 2 weeks. Initially at 33, reduced average to 32, did some more trading this week due to the swing, my average now 31, so nearly where we are.
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So what may happen next week? Chinese stocks played exactly like last week. I had written last wee that "Chinese stocks were going great guns today, rising nearly 5%. It was looking good in first half in Chinese trade, but second half was a semi-disaster. Both Ganfeng and Tianqi gave away most of the gains in second half." We didn't get the momentum last Friday, and again today, this Friday. Exact play. Bot Ganfeng and Tianqi dropped 5% from their highs of the day, Ganfeng finishing red though Tianqi was green. So a big-big play that could have happened and propelled ALB to get over 106, may now have to wait. Lot of confusion around how success of Mr Trump will affect the sector - no clear thoughts at this stage, Trump has a negative view towards EV, but he has to manage Mr Genius - Musk - so will it be neutralised? We don't know. But, many punters are apprehensive. Also his play against China. Already the sector was in some confused state for last one month, another factor, the Trump factor has been added to that. I still feel we need ALB over 106 and Ganfeng over 37, for general sector, like most stocks, to not only rise, but to keep the gains. It could happen. There are many positive signs. They are both trying hard. ALB could finish above 102 today. It has held 92/94 level, next step is to cross the resistance.. Will that happen? Let's hope so. Enjoy your weekend and all the bes
(20min delay)