They may well have A$2.5 billion cash, at the end of this calendar year.
The basis of this calculation, would be using their guidance of 580 k tons PA......and an average realised price of A$7,000 per ton, on the mix of auction and contracted rock concentrate sales, over the next 6 months. (Pricing has been thoroughly discussed today, with in fact A$7,000 an accurate compilation of gross sales pricing, I think, as it would stand today.) Aussie dollar into .688c tonight, worth mentioning....means PLS get payed more, due to contract in US dollars.
I am using A$1000 per ton, all in production costs ( a couple of hundred dollars either way, is all but irrelevant)..........so circ 300 k tons @ A$6,000 or $1.8 billion pre tax free cash, for the Dec half. No account is taken into a suggested additional 100 k tons PA production, before the end of the year......... (of interest also, a further increased production increase, to 1 b tons PA within 9 months, of decision to proceed. )
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Now to their cash position as at 30 June. I am suggesting A$600 m free cash generation, in this June quarter (on 100 k ton shipped and 20 k ton March qr legacy shipment proceeds. Gross cash, you will note, therefore for this qr have been wound back somewhat from the suggested $6,000 p/t next half....as sale prices are lower, this qr.
$285 m cash at the end of the last qr......so based on the about paragraph estimate, the company will release a June quarterly, showing $885 m cash. (Excluded are the $20m grant, proceeds of the auction shipment and legacy production costs factoring, actually incurred in the March qr - such as to offset capital eg solar plant, Ngungaju restart costs, loan repay (a relative small amt).
After $200m tax this fin year. (Note they are carrying $200m in loses eg expensed drilling, pre strip mine development and capex depreciation).......does in fact come to $2.5 billion at the end of the year. End of June plus additional 6 months to Dec earnings.
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Obvious point is - the SP is completely and hopelessly out of whack , with company fundamentals. In fac,t fundamentals that are unfolding right now - no waiting months , years.... required withn this stock.
Somewhat ironic, that this is such a well know stock - an absolute market darling, until more recent times. The business they are in..... is of such high repute and integrity. A real "save the world type of product" , yet the share price is a shambles.
Summary -The header on this thread is real, I think.
Despite current disappointment..... it should be breath takings to see something like true value unfold, for this stock.
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