Red,
As Kamahl used to say: 'Why are people so unkind?'! (given your name, I thought it an appropriate reference ... he used to go on that show all the time). This is the second time you've hammered Deca over maths in the past week.
That said ...
Deca ... whilst Dabru's post was obviously more back of the lunch-wrapper than back of the envelope, I do feel obliged to point out the following:-
1. the last time I heard there was an estimate of approximately $5 margin per visit for the SUS's, so $1 might have been a rough estimate taking other business costs into account (Dabru to clarify?)
2. it will be quite a while before PLT need to pay any tax ... I can't remember the exact figure, but I think they have tax deductions of around $60M ... that's the advantage of being in the business for so long without actually making a profit. The SP will be sky-high before that runs out
3. re "Sonic Healthcare, Labcorp or Quest should be all over PLT" ... this implies you're talking about CerviScreen in a developed world market, as the 1 billion women referred to would be for developing nations which have inadequate lab facilities
Also, when I first read Dabru's post, the 20% was obviously a bit tongue-in-cheek, but as was mentioned, if you're going do dream, you'd might as well make it a good one. However, 5% is not out of the question, and so quarter of Dabru's $6.93 is not too bad. That also ignores CerviScreen, which (although it will have competition) should bring in some nice numbers once it's finally launched.
Oh, and another factor that wasn't brought into the equation was the eventual share pool in 1.75 years time, once all of the convertible notes options have become shares (they will be), although nobody ever seems to factor options in for these types of calc's.
Cheers.
p.s. an update from the company (as heralded in the shareholder update a month ago) would be nice, quite aside from any rumoured blockbuster announcements ... waiting, waiting (SP dropping, dropping, ...)
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