Plunging Car Sales, page-210

Hey Acorn.

I'm aware of Tony Seba is and he's S curve adoption models.
I'm also following the sector as I'm involved through sharemarket.

Having said that, I think Seba is bit too optimistic. Or better way to put it is: the S curve rarely works as smoothly with disruptive techs that require massive overhaul of the infrastructure (new factories, charging stations, mines and materials, etc) and capital investment.
It's totally different to S curve in IT, Google, digital cameras, mobile phones, etc.

Even with robotics and digital revolution techs there were Tony Seba equivalents in 2000's predicting with S curve that by 2020's:
We will live in a houses entirely operated by AI, nanobots in our bodies eliminating cancer, infection and disease, robots building roads, houses, mining, with only human remote oversight. Mining asteroids by 2030's and human colonies on Mars..
Those things will all happen eventually, I'm sure. But problem with S curve exponentially following through with new tech breakthroughs and capital investments is:
Eventually they hit a roadblock in the form of tech taking longer to develop, capital costs and infrastructure can't keep up with tech, etc.

For example:
VW plans to build and sell around 20% EV's by 2025. And over the decade up to 30% EVs. There is huge discrepancy between Seba's S curve and VW infrastructure (factories, batteries, workforce, supply chains) coming online.
And VW is one of more optimistic on EV adoption with their plans and infrastructure investment.
IMO

But we'll see, as you said: "It's hard to predict what will happen". 1 breakthrough in battery tech could change everything.