Plunging Car Sales, page-217

Yep. I reckon Seba is a bit optimistic myself although given his experience and access to data I think his view needs to be considered.

I favor the view of Bloomberg New Energy Finance which is in the 2021 and 2025 range so a couple of years behind Seba.

I agree with your view on the supply chain. Going from the established ICE one to an ev one will take some doing however I think we will be surprised to the upside.
There is so much going on in the background and the pace of change is really picking up in ways we have never seen before.

The most important point to watch for me is the sticker price. When you can buy an ev for the same price as the ICE equivalent it will be game over. ICE resale will fall overnight and it will be a major disruption for the bulk of the industry. There will be pockets that will survive such as the outback 4wd driving in sand segment but even that will be solved later.
But for the 5 seater commuter/family run around suv market, when you can buy something that is otherwise exactly the same as the ICE version for the same money, the crowd will rush to the electric version imo.