Kevwr, Based on the limited information your analysis is...

Kevwr,

Based on the limited information your analysis is consistent with my initial thoughts.

In simple terms Lynas would save on the cost exporting the WLP. I saw an estimate somewhere that was about $130m.

Presumably the $50m bond will cover the PDF.

A recent AFR article quoted a cost of WLP circuit at $350-$400m:

But we understand that the deal taken to Lynas last August would have seen WA’s patrician conglomerate build a $350-$400 million water leach processing (WLP) circuit at Wesfarmers’ existing chemical and fertiliser processing hub at Kwinana, just south of Perth.

Ordinarily this would be disastrous, but if it forms part of Lamp 2 and cheap finance can once again be obtained from the Japanese or through a JV with WES then that is a new ball game (Next Next).

They just need time to continue current production and achieve this.

Lynas have been in negotiations with the Government and WES.

The Malaysian Cabinet may have approved the ‘terms’ of a new licence from September that sets out the high level requirements over the next license period for further negotiation with Lynas or potential purchasers. The devil will be in the detail and is probably still to be negotiated.

If the Malaysian Government are sincere in wanting the Lamp to continue operating then they will need to provide the runway to allow it to happen.