PMT Megathread, page-1521

Thanks for reaching out to me. I have a theory, and its this - many don't want to believe it, but I follow it.

This is from my post on RDN sometime back, I have got similar posts on other threads like VSR etc. So you can see I believe in Stage 1 (mainly hype) where a lot of gain can be made. I do play that. But get out before Santa face is shown.

Many times I have talked about Stage 1 rise (hope/potential/hype) where stocks rise between 100 to 500%. And when they reach reality, Stage 2, they fall down. Maybe RDN has gone thru that phase. Advantage for RDN is that this drop is not based on any drill result, so the door is still open to play another Stage 1 rise. Around 80 other ASX Li stocks have gone thru Stage 1, but have dropped back after facing Stage 2 (Reality, drill results). For them its very difficult. In fact, I have not seen a single stock come back after facing Stage 2 bad drill results.
.
And this Stage 1 rise happens in groups, because they play the same thing - potential/nearology etc. Many ASX stocks moved together last year, many Canadian stocks moved together early this year, then DLI play by VSR/ZEU/RR1/ODE etc in May this year - same period rise and drop. In this phase we have had ARV/ERW/GRE/RDN rising together in early November. All made gains between 100 to 200%. All have fallen back - RDN from 8 to 3.1, ERW from 28 to 8.6, ARV from 4.2 to 1.9, GRE from 99 to 40.5. So there is a pattern and movements usually happen in a group, both up and down. Of course individual stocks with their events/announcements/drill results etc can carve their own path. But for Stage 1 phase, they mostly go together.

So as you can see, i believe in Stage 1 (hype) and Stage 2 (reality). It depends on what you are playing. We never know what is the final result - whether its AZS/WC8 style or 100s of other stocks which followed.

I think you have a view that jurisdiction is important. It is, but not as important as how the sector is doing. Sometimes we spend a lot of time trying to maximize - get that extra 10/20 %. But the reality is if the sector is doing well, then you would get most benefit anyway, so not much point in trying to maximize. So the point I am trying to get is that sector/stock should be in uptrend, the gain will be enough rather than worrying about maximising.
.
I have a contrarian view, but its to sector rather than jurisdiction. My experience says, especially when Stage 1 stocks are being played, its all about hype. Doesn't matter Canada, Australia, Brazil. I have seen more than 80 stocks across all jurisdictions which have gained between 100 to 500%. So it doesn't matter in that play. Then where does it matter? Where there is genuine play. I was lucky to play WC8 from 30s to 90 where, all documented in that thread, before I exited. That was 2 months back. Today I bought back a portion of WC8, first time after 2 months, at 62. These are genuine plays. But sometimes we make most on the hype - its true, percentage gains. So with regard to your query - First market, second sector, third Jurisdiction, fourth hype, fifth how we play. So, I understand your point, but I don't worry about points you have raised. LTR gained few billions in a day, because someone made an offer. LTR lost fee billions in a day because offer was taken away. So if we can't figure out few billions of market caps which changes in a day, we are just taking a stab and hoping for the best. Sometimes it works. Other times not. We have to be lucky sometimes. All the best.