PMT Megathread, page-1682

Provided Albermarle walked because of their financial situation it is a clear M&A target.

IMO one of the biggest longterm issues for all undeveloped North American spodumene deposits is transport costs. Unless you believe that hydro-powered electric is an option, it’s brave to make a bet on a mine that will be heavily exposed to the price of oil in 5-10 years time.

The reason for this is that despite all of the american battery factories being built, there’s very very very few Western companies that can successfully convert spodumene to lithium hydroxide on a commercial scale. A lot of companies want to try, but the experience of lithium converters and miners in WA suggests that it’s just not going to be successful. This means that Canadian Spodumene will need to be shipped to China for conversion.

IMO the only realistic speculative M&A activities will be from:
1. Arcadium, they will have the EBITDA in CY27-28 to build this, and for M&A they could offer scrip. I wouldn’t expect an offer until 2nd-half CY25. They have in-house ability to convert spodumene to hydroxide, and likely synergies with Nemaska and Galaxy operations.
2. PLS, they have the financing ability, and the midstream Li3PO4 solves all of the transportation issues.
3. Another form of the POSCO joint-venture.

I find it difficult to see who else might be a realistic candidate; IMO any others would most likely just lock in a spodumene of-take in return for some financing of the plant.