Growth of 22% in 26 and 25% in 27 seems a bit light.
PNV expect a substantial acceleration when BARDA trial is completed. Not just sales to Gov but the extra validation it will provide.
Also ulcer trial will open up massive new market. Not sure about timing. But previously marked as next big thing.
India and others seem to be doing better then I expected.
Also need to put some value on cell transfer tech. Speculative but huge opportunity.
Until the company matures, with growth coming down below 10%, the PE will be very high.
Having said that, I wouldn't value it by PE at all at this stage. That would be like valuing Apple by its PE in 2007. Or Tesla in 2019
All we can do is guess future revenue and real ongoing costs for current revenue versus expansion costs.
I guess eventual after cost margin of about 50% as gross margin is over 90%. Not capital intensive. I'm assuming sales staff as a percentage of sales will come down substantially when growth matures. They need an army now but not forever?
So 300M sales in a few years is about 150M profit x 30 PE is 4.5B : $7.00. More likely 50 PE if spend on new opportunities is still there.
Although the profit predicted in 27 may not be. As board may decide to gamble 20M PA on huge cell delivery tech or something else. Hope so.
Some highly speculative Grok research on BTM cell delivery potential:
Total Potential Revenue for NovoSorb BTM (Cell Therapy Delivery, 2030):
- Base Case: USD 100–500 million (T1D: USD 50–200 million + Non-T1D: USD 50–300 million).
- Optimistic Case: USD 550–1,500 million (T1D: USD 150–500 million + Non-T1D: USD 400–1,000 million). This assumes BTM’s superiority drives 30–50% T1D market share and 10–20% non-T1D share, supported by regulatory approvals and partnerships.
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