Possibly time to revisit the short thesis that these threads...

  1. 5,815 Posts.
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    Possibly time to revisit the short thesis that these threads have been promoting which was, I believe, that shorts were trying to 'push' PNV out of the 200. The rebalance has taken place and this didn't occur. I don't think this is a huge surprise, because inclusion/exclusion from the index is more than just market cap, a stock needs to have a certain amount of liquidity (and it also needs another stock who has performed strongly to be ready to replace it). That likely explains why SMR has recently been booted despite their market cap ($1.75B) being significantly higher than others who remain in the index, like PNV at $0.9B or NXL at $0.7B; I think this is because SMR have a single shareholder who holds 59% of the register; if market participants stop trading a coal stock like SMR it rapidly misses the liquidity requirement.

    Williams has been unequivocal about the fact PNV won't be raising capital. So either a) those short the stock don't believe him and are positioning for a cash call, or b) they think the valuation remains challengingly full given the recent turmoil at the company management level. I am not passing judgment on whether the shorts are correct or not, just stating my opinion that those options remain the most likely reasons for the high short interest. We'll know for certain in a couple of weeks if the short interest really collapses (in which case I am wrong), or if it remains elevated despite the stock 'missing' the rebalance exit.
 
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(20min delay)
Last
$1.18
Change
-0.085(6.72%)
Mkt cap ! $815.1M
Open High Low Value Volume
$1.27 $1.27 $1.16 $3.705M 3.105M

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
1 2155 $1.18
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
$1.19 3794 1
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Last trade - 16.10pm 13/06/2025 (20 minute delay) ?
PNV (ASX) Chart
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