PNV - Banter and General Comments, page-3089

I had an email re Bell Potter initiation from a friend - let's call him Dave.
I looked at the sales revenue estimates the used and I think the report undervalues PNV somewhat..


FY21e looks OK at a little over double FY20 (assuming there is still some COVID sales drag) but they have incremented by 24.8 then 24.2 then 19.4 million.
If we are to take the double, double, double mantra espoused by the management (and I think it is not too far off the mark based on current sales track record) then FY22e should be around 93 million and FY23 should be around 186 million.
The analyst believes PNV is fully priced at EV/Revenue of 19.6x for FY22e compared to domestic wound care peers of 12.6x is and Medtech peers of 9.6x.
The wound care peer companies they used are Avita, Aroa and Next Science. I would argue that PNV would be at a premium to those due to market expansion rate and product superiority. Integra was around 16.7x for 2019.
The med tech peers included some large established companies like COH, Fisher & Paykel and RMD as well as younger ones like NAN, Somnomed, and Imrocor.
Interestingly the FY21 ratio for this group was 18.9x. All bar F&P had a higher ratio in FY21 estimates and Imricor was on 68x while NAN which I would argue is more mature than PNV by a couple of years was on 14.5 ration FY21.

If I use 93 m for FY23 I get 15.2x. I think the SP has so room to move and the quality of the company will push it up consistently over the next 3 years as BTM sales compound and hernia comes to the fore. If PNV kept sales growth doubling then revenue of 186 million with EV of 1413 million would be 7.6x ratio. If we used a 10x as a benchmark for 186 million the EV would be 1860 million or 31% more.

So I will be watching the sales revenue numbers closely and see where we land in FY21.

All IMHO and DYOR.