This is great, thanks Whytee. Your back of the envelope method...

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22/06/23

13:31

Post #: 68418451
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Originally posted by whytee: ↑

If you want a back of the envelope method of determining the potential earnings, then it's (total revenue for 2023- total revenue for 2022). That will be around $20m or so. That $20m is being poured back into hiring new sales people, R&D, trials and expansion of the manufacturing plant. If they didn't do any of that then they would have made a profit of $20m.

If the revenue for 2024 comes in at $90m then they could have made $30m profit for the year, but I would expect those potential earnings to be fully deployed again expanding the business. If in 2025 expected revenues are $135m would give approx $45m in earnings which would again be poured back into growth. You get the idea and the numbers start to get a lot bigger if ex USA sales take off as I think they will. That's when the investment in India and Europe and the DFU R&D will hopefully start to show rewards.

A better and more detailed analysis is available from MacQuarie, who know what they are doing. It's clear that some of the other broker's like Wilson's do not, not that I care very much. As long as the revenues keep growing, so does the potential profit. I don't see aggressive growth slowing for a few years because it's being used in ways and indications that Integra never was. Poynovo actually undersestimated the potential market IMO and DW has alluded to that when he talks about them catching up with where the surgeons are leading them. It would have been nice to have hernia repair and breast reconstruction devices as well, but they aren't essential to the current business but they do offer potential avenues for future growth and expansion.

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This is great, thanks Whytee. Your back of the envelope method makes a lot of sense.

Your point made me realise that flip side of my earlier point is if sales staff expense actually equalled revenue expense then we would never grow.. think about it like a car, if drag force equaled torque of the engine it would never accelerate.

And then there’s the “critical mass” style theory. As we get more research, discussion and awareness sales become easier.

PNV Price at posting: $1.48 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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This is great, thanks Whytee. Your back of the envelope method...

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This is great, thanks Whytee. Your back of the envelope method...

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