I have a hypothesis that the days-to-cover trends can shed some light on the short behaviour and the change in selling pressure in the short term.
The average days-to-cover has been running around 6-6.5 days (30 day average volume) through May and June until recently, even though the # short positions has gradually reduced. I think maybe days-to-cover is set to a given target for various large short sellers depending on perceived upside risk. It has drifted up lately and shows more short-selling risk is being taken as a whole. I am guessing the recent easing of the selling pressure on close is related to capping the days-to-cover to manage risk. This will be more apparent in a week's time.
The lowest price in the 3rd graph better shows the relationship of price to selling pressure.
The higher risk is setting the short positions up for a squeeze if the market gets a very positive result / forward guidance. I think that is quite likely and the upside risk is therefore high.
All IMHO and please DYOR
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$2.29 |
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$2.33 | $2.34 | $2.24 | $2.151M | 944.0K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 9090 | $2.27 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$2.29 | 15253 | 5 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 2193 | 2.270 |
5 | 17358 | 2.260 |
2 | 7860 | 2.250 |
4 | 13142 | 2.240 |
7 | 120207 | 2.230 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
2.290 | 7621 | 3 |
2.300 | 14557 | 6 |
2.310 | 2136 | 1 |
2.320 | 6496 | 2 |
2.330 | 13092 | 4 |
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