So I consider myself a bit of a student of Mark Minervini who's mandate is to capture big trend moves by analyzing stock life cycles and entering on a strict criteria based on technicals and fundamentals.
(His books are excellent and I strongly recommend reading them to anyone who's looking to expand their understanding of stock signals, fundamentals, capital management and mindset techniques. They were a game changer for me)
The basic idea is the stock is in 4 stages.
- Stage 1: Neglect Phase: consolidation
- Stage 2: Advancing phase: accumulation
- Stage 3: Topping phase: distribution
- Stage 4: Declining phase: capitulation
I have attached my observation of PNVs cycle with notes on a weekley chart.
It is my belief that we are currently in stage 4 as shown by the side ways movement after the stage 3 topping phase. Guessing when this will conclude is irrelevant but should be made obvious by a few markers (and will for me suggest a time to buy in to capture the ascent):
- Stock price is above the 200MA
- 200MA is in an uptrend
- 150MA is above the 200MA
- Stock price in a clear uptrend with higher highs and lower lows
- Shorter term MAs above the 150MA
- Volume spikes on big up days and weeks are contrasted by volume contractions on lower price days and weeks
- There are more up days and up weeks on above average volume than down days and down weeks on above average volume
This criteria should imply institutional support. The upwards trend would also display basing periods where the price consolidates after waves upwards.
For the most part PNVs chart is mature enough for me to see the above concept having played out already. Covid obviously is an interesting break in the chart pattern however it does fall within the stage 4 mentioned. PNV announced increasing demand for their product within this time too if I'm not mistaken which goes a way to showing the significant bounce up from the March lows.
The short positions signal uncertainty but this has little bearing on what to do for me. I'll wait for the criteria to be met and make a call then. Prudent capital management is my defense if I miss-time my entry.
I have a small pilot buy sitting there already and have been watching the head and shoulders pattern play out over the past few months. There is a good chance on the price sliding with that in mind but I would expect it only be temporary. Plenty of catalysts for significant re-rating in the short, near and long term.
If anyone has any thoughts on what I've written here I would appreciate hearing them 
(20min delay)