PNV Monthly projections for Q2CY22

Longer term readers and posters will be aware I've been recording monthly BTM sales revenue since the start of PNV and have shown those modelled results here and in more detail on that other target forum.

I posted a graph showing these values and the overlying growth model a few days ago on another thread.

The model that best fits the monthly data is quadratic - very commonly the best model for sales growth in a business scenario.

There is also enough data collected now (57 data points over 5 years) to roughly estimate monthly seasonal variation as well.

This model, including rough seasonal corrections, gives the following values for this quarter. (BTM total sales revenues in AUD).

April: $3,440,000
May: $3,510,000
June: $3,920,000

Because the model includes data from the months affected by the Covid slow down, it would be expected to still be underestimating the values, now that we are out of the Covid affected period. This was also the case last quarter with the projected values being on average about $400k per month under.

Given the above information, what sort of estimates do posters have for the current quarter?

Something to discuss over the weekend while we have no trading. Or not

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