... without any new news (except the poo up a couple of dollars).
POE watchers got their Thai report ahead of CVNer and were neutral towards it until trading last nite.
My view is that poe watchers have now digested the drilling schedule changes and significance of the message from their directors of B versus A.
A. ..is 14 development wells (reducible to 13 or 12 because of the inherent delays in oil drilling) before 31/12 -a mixture of V and S drills , good and average locations, plus expensive and immediately unrewarding drills at WB so as to turn over every rock in the Thai leases as part of the current review .
14 development wells (or 13,or 12) at an average of 150 bopd with a very high cost to reward ratio on those WB wells as a result of the high cost of the Big rig for paltry production gains on those inferior sites.
plus a 3500 bopd exit figure prediction for poe (= 2000 for CVN)
versus
B.... is the 6 best of the 14 /13/12 but the expected average rocketing from 150bopd to 200?,250?,more? as the duffers are dropped out of the schedule.
plus 3 high impact appraisal wells in the northern compartment at NSE with the partners clearly (IMO) putting these centre stage when they werent even in the stadium a couple of weeks back.
Plus no cash out flow for the WB wells that have no prospect of a payback other than the scientific reward associated with the comprehensive review.
Plus a 3500 bopd,PLUS exit figure prediction for poe(= 2000bopd,plus for CVN).
Ask yourself this. If you were Jeff (poe president and CEO) would you,if you believed that poe exit production would stll be 3500 bopd after the changes to the drilling schedule put "plus" after the 3500 figure? I wouldnt,but Im fairly conservative(believe it or not).
At least 1 person on the planet thinks that CVN will exit 2011 at 2000 bopd,or more.He just happens to be the big cheese of the group who actually organise the partners drilling(that puts him a notch ahead of anybody at CVN ).
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