pog, aud & qe., page-2

Suanna

First let me start by saying I am not a "currency trader type" lol

But I see you have drawn a blank with regards to a response here on HC - pity really. I think others have pontificated in the past regarding the AUD POG (GC for one??)

So I'll have a go and share my views.

QE is a possibility in Australia some time in the future......but this will not necessarily be the only change factor for the POG in AUD IMO.

I and others have stated before that there will be a race to devalue currencies - given the current environment and to make "exports" competitive.

The Swiss having only recently intervened in the CHF, already find that it has pretty much gone back to its pre-intervention levels and may be considering more action:

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090427-706941.html SNB WATCH: Bank's Resolve To Curb Franc's Rise Faces Test
(Tip - if you google the header you can view the whole article:))

Fundamentals are not playing much part in the market ATM - even Meredith Whitney called this most recent equities rally "the great govt momentum trade" last night (bit of an understatement!)

The AUD is up on:

1. US Markets UP (in a big way ) - check this chart out a comparison of AUD/USD pair against the S&P500 and DJIA in the US and you will see the turn around 9th March. Sorry won't post here.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AUDUSD=X#chart7:symbol=audusd=x;range=3m;compare=^gspc+^dji;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

2. Commodities UP

2. Less Risk aversion (Market Psychology) based on the "worse is over" scenario

3. Oz Interest Rates high in comparison to other "most traded" currencies - see chart:



If any of these change so to will the AUD.

Increasing government intervention creates different twists and turns along the road.

But DYOR and these are my thoughts and opinions only - see disclaimer below.

Cheers