I suspect its a pretty big fund liquidating shares. The trend is...

I suspect its a pretty big fund liquidating shares.

The trend is beoming quite clear, these shares get really punished after their quarterlies.

Even BHP fell drastically after their quarterly report, which was quite solid. OZL fell another 10% after their quarterly report, and LGL falls 10 pct right after their quarterly.

Perhaps over the past few weeks some fund has been contenplating on liquidation of the sector completely, and deides to pik an event like quarterly release to unload shares.

The worrying thing now, is that everyone who has wanted to be long LGL are already long, and overflowing. Everyone who wants to sell, are holding out for a higher price, but there's one (or a few) funds annihilating the share price.

It started on the day of the result, the selling started at about 2:30pm.

The share price fell from 290 to 280, at rampant selling rate. It was exodus kind of stuff, and downticking all the way.

The next morning, it opened near its close, waffled around for 5 minutes, and the about 15 million shares was pushed out the door, pretty much at maket, sending it through stops and triggers at 2.80.

Spent the whole day at 2.70, whenever someone cleared that line, the offer would come right back up.When the seller eased off, the share price bounced 4 cents.

Yesterday was stop losses and some short covering happening. Didn't look like a really large seller yesterday, volume was onstrained and the share price movement didn't reflect a big seller pushing things out regardless of prie, it looked like more of a measured patience until it broke 2.60 and there was a flurry of orders oming on at once (CFD stop losses), before reovering after lunch to grind back above 2.60 and finished almost 10 cents higher from the abyss at 1pm.

My guess and opinion is this. After being caught out in OZL and BNB when Barclays whaled stock out remorsely, I did some research. Its funny how you do alot more work when you're down.

I suspect FIMR (Fidelity) one of LGL's largest shareholders, is selling out. I come to this conclusion because after being on the wrong end of BGI's liquidation campaign in OZL and BNB, I think Fidelity have decided enough is enough, we are selling all our shares.

In essence its like a big boys stop loss.


Judging by the price action, most of the volume was done in the past 3 days at or around 2.70. Which means, all the speculators, traders and punters will be sellers in this sort of markets between 2.68 - 2.75. If we break through 2.75 back up, that means some other big chunky fund has decided to take a view and clean out the short term money in there for a bounce. If it doesn't go through those levels convincingly, I can see it dwindle away like OZL did.

I stress, purely guesswork and purely based ont price action the last 3 days.