Jackpot, below are just complete guesses. I have a little more...

Jackpot, below are just complete guesses. I have a little more faith in the calculation of margins than volumes but both are guesses at the end of the day.

I've read various sources which suggest the average retail margin on general cosmetics is about 50% but can vary wildly. So if a retailer is selling it for $100, I assume they are not paying more than $50 wholesale. Also, as this article suggests:

http://en.allexperts.com/q/General-Retail-Business-2223/2010/3/COSMETIC-MARK.htm

The only thing that is constant is the product that you buy in almost any cosmetic counter for $20 likely has less than $2 in first costs! Most of the cost in cosmetics is packaging, advertising, selling and logistics.

Yes I know the source of this article is not exactly the gold standard. But considering packaging seeling costs etc. of anywhere between $10 - $20 and production costs I would put profit ofr POH at the retail level at about $30. Then you have direct sales which obviously have a higher margin but I have no idea of the split of sales between the two channels so I'm just going to stick with $40 profit per tube (I have a feeling that may be too high)

On sales in Australia I'd go with 100,000 tubes sold in the first year, admittedly a complete and utter guess on my part.