This is my opinion. I think you are right on much of this Gpoe. But I think too you assume the arctic and silk roads are going to ill effect Shenghe with GGG. Shenghe, trade, REE etc will all continue on as it normally has for decades no matter what labels they give the tradeways or intend to do more or less. If they become threatened by war GGG wouldnt mind. As critical minerals would become extremely valuable in warfare weaponry an. If countries needed Im sure under treaty they could harness security minerals to assist in the countries defense. Again, my opinion. Countries will just become ever more aware of Chinas actions and deals , and in doing so, avoid.
But thats not going to effect GGG much.
I suspect GGG will have ample support in Europe to buy their REEs. Not to china. To me it sounds like its already there in interest and intent. Shenghe if they have some business sense will want to be a part of that. It will fill what ever role is required. If that means a small co-partner like Mountain Pass. They will surely see one foot in the door as better than none. They will surely also lend considerable support via supply of technology and trade support. Again my opinion. They were happy to take offtake and make money off that in the 2015 MOU. Why wouldnt they do so again.
GGG at $4/kg or less production cost, if not perhaps lower , is considerably cheaper than they can buy at home. Check but I believe the best is $6 in China so thats So Kvanfleds steenstrupine easily supply's back into their market too and potentially return on a more competitive position. GGG I hope will produce at 50% discount to Chinas Bou for example which is its main rival. If GGG produces at 50% less then even them (of course youd add shipping and taxes here Gpoe Shenghe would surely like a foot in the door in any project even if its 10-20%.They know Europe will eventually process and supply themselves. So here is a chance to be in that and through that do deals for other products, equipment, expertise and trade.. Its the association that is attracting them more than anything else in my opinion as what Ive watched them do with Mountain Pass has been co-operate beyond expectation..
I still believe Shenghe wizened after the Chinese government cut their export totals greater than it did to their own state owned produces. Shenghe knows its at the mercy of its Chinese government owned peers. Im sure it has a business mind at the helm. Shenghe in order to survive needs to become more international in operation I feel. Diversify their business model is a mode for their survival. . Shenghe has already bought a REE facility in Vietnam.
Shenghe appears to me to simply be branching out with fair conduct and etiquette that an international share holder run company would want.. I think it realizes it cant ever be in control of international REE resources in future for reasons of pretty obvious critical mineral talk headlining. Western countries no longer want to be dependent. So Shenghe sees business going overseas. But this way it can still be a part of it. I cant help but feel that they will elect to take a minor stake in Greenland Minerals Kvanefjld REE supply and assist that stake holder company to succeed ahead of its peers in its considerable big brother support role.
Inevitably anyway I may as well say it so whats your thoughts again gbb?
But only if in your response you dont forget to include Kvanefjld is currently the only source Shenghe are interested in buying into that I know of, in Greenland, or even more. Shenghe took a thorough look and examined many worthy deposits to settle in Kvanefjld. Many it didnt look t. If you look at its Padacs talk in 2020. Im sure youll enjoy it too. Also the more valued REE set, profit, well managed, professional body etc would help in your response in recognition of that mutual understanding
